Financial Planning Tip November 2026

November 2026

Election day is upon us. Please remember to perform your civic duty today if you haven't done so already. What does the market think about your vote? How will it react Wednesday morning as results come in? 

While we often poke fun at the stock market for its short-sighted overreactions, it's actually a very efficient machine at incorporating the litany of potential outcomes. There's a strong possibility of a Democratic sweep, and also a strong possibility of a split legislature. Polls and prediction markets have pointed in this direction for months, so we don't expect anything will deliver a shock to the markets on Wednesday morning. Even the low-probability outcomes wouldn't result in an government that behaves appreciably differently from what's been experienced in our past history.

The market makes its biggest moves when something completely unknown and unexpected happens. The permutations of who will be in charge of which branch of government have already been considered and accounted for. Even extreme edge cases such as the possibility of a contested election that is settled in courts wouldn't surprise the market. What would it take to deliver a true surprise then? Look back to the Covid pandemic, which sent markets nearly 35% lower within a month. The market dropped 14% between March 10 - March 12, 2020 alone, as Italy announced a previously unfathomable nationwide lockdown, and American states -- both red and blue -- began to implement lockdown procedures of their own. If a Covid-sized cataclysm befalls us this evening or in the coming weeks, then we would expect markets to react with similar ferocity. The mere shift from one controlling party to the other has happened many times in the past, so we don't place much credibility in the idea that markets will make large, lasting moves following election results. If anything, the ability for markets to say with certainty what won't happen legislatively is likely to be welcome news.